Konstanz-based political scientist Gabrielle Gricius warns that acquiring Greenland would more likely weaken US security rather than strengthening it. The expert on security policy in the Arctic explains the backdrop for US interest in Greenland – and calls for European countries to do their part to ensure lasting security policy for the Arctic region.
Image-Jean-Christphe Andre
As the US administration led by Donald Trump has continued to reassert its interest in owning Greenland, Europe has become more and more concerned about the security situation in the Arctic. In her project “Mapping Strategic Convergence: The Arctic and Hybrid Threats in Northern Europe”, political scientist Gabriella Gricius from the Zukunftskolleg at the University of Konstanz studies how European security policy must readjust to the new situation in the Arctic. Gricius recommends looking to the Nordics as a good example of how states can work together across the Baltic, Nordic, Arctic and High Atlantic and respond to a changed security reality. The political scientist also makes it clear that an annexation or purchase of Greenland would not strengthen the security of the USA and NATO, but would instead considerably weaken it.
US security interests are already sufficiently guaranteed in its existing trilateral defence agreement with Greenland and Denmark, Gricius concludes: “The United States already has access to everything it needs from Greenland to defend itself, in particular, the US military base in Greenland: the Pituffik Space Base (previously Thule Air Base). By purchasing Greenland or taking it over via illegal military means, the US would actively harm its own national security, the security of NATO and the overall security of the international, democratic, rules-based order.” Ultimately, an annexation would endanger NATO solidarity and relations with Europe. “Without the support of NATO and current European allies, the United States would be in a much weaker position on the world stage. This would make it much easier for countries like Russia and China to take hold in other countries”, Gricius warns.
In the past, too, the United States has expressed interest in Greenland. As Gricius explains: “In 1867, 1910, 1946, 1955 and now, in 2019 and 2025 under president Trump, the US government has repeatedly expressed an intent to acquire Greenland.” However, the political scientist recommends choosing a diplomatic route: “Instead of threatening Greenland or offering to buy it, the US administration would be better advised to expand its diplomatic relations with Greenland and invest in long-term partnerships. This could, for example, include renegotiating the defence agreement if absolutely needed or offering additional financial investments for Greenland”, Gabriella Gricius adds. “The people of Greenland are not interested in becoming part of the United States: In January of 2025, 85 percent of the population voted against joining the USA, although a large majority (84 percent) support independence from Denmark.”
Europe’s role in the Arctic
Taking an overall view of European security policy in the Arctic, and not just focusing on Greenland, Gabriella Gricius sees only one option: “The Nordic countries must reorient their policies. Decisions in the Arctic region do not just impact the Arctic states. Baltic and North Atlantic countries also play an important role since the region cannot be considered in isolation”, the American explains. Gricius’ research shows that Nordic security cooperation is based on a flexible, modular model. The political scientist emphasizes the importance of informal relationships, both between government officials and in the context of military exercises, for building the foundation for stronger and more adaptable security relationships.
“We have entered a new phase of reorientation with regard to Nordic security cooperation”, she explains. “There are currently no limitations for collaboration among Nordic states, especially since Finland and Sweden are now NATO members. For this reason, it is key to take advantage of this phase in which all of the countries have an incentive to cooperate with each other.”
Gabriella Gricius names two concrete steps for European security policy: first, continuing to build upon the strong Nordic security community by strengthening defence practice and engaging in shared operative planning in the Arctic, and second, increasing the protection of critical infrastructure in the Baltic and Barents Sea in response to hybrid threats. Although Gricius sees the risk of military conflict in the Arctic as low, hybrid threats, such as a growing number of drone activities, sabotage of critical infrastructure (e.g. underwater cables and pipelines) and disinformation campaigns, are likely to increase further. “Even if Northern European countries do share a similar understanding of hybrid threats, they may have their differences on how to respond to them and face challenges with regard to coordinating their defence strategies.” This not only has consequences for NATO, but also for Germany as a Northern European country with strategic interests in the Baltic.
Background: Why Greenland?
Greenland is an autonomous territory in the Arctic that is part of the Kingdom of Denmark. Under President Trump, the United States has repeatedly spoken of acquiring Greenland and has not ruled out doing so by military means. Gabriella Gricius sees two main reasons for the US’ interest in Greenland: strategic security considerations and critical raw materials. “At the moment, the USA is dependent on imports for 100 percent of twelve critical minerals, and 50 percent of 29 additional minerals. Greenland has many of these mineral resources and can thus be seen as an option for reducing dependence on imports from China”, Gricius adds.
During the Cold War in particular, Greenland’s importance to the US centred around defence purposes. “Because of its geographic location, Greenland was a key location for tracking ballistic missiles that could potentially reach the United States from the USSR. In the 1950s, a corresponding radar system was originally constructed, before being upgraded in the 1980s and then updated again in 2009”, Gricius explains. It was only on 14 January 2026 that Trump emphasized that acquiring Greenland would be decisive for the “Golden Dome” – a proposed missile defence system that the US wants to use to intercept missiles and cruise missiles launched from space. The GIUK Gap (Greenland-Iceland-UK gap) is also of central importance for maritime surveillance as Russian submarines and the Russian navy must pass through this gap to enter the North Atlantic.
