Juneau – Department of Revenue (DOR) Commissioner Sheldon Fisher released the spring 2018 revenue forecast Friday. The forecast includes the Department’s updated forecast of oil price, oil production, and state revenue.
Unrestricted General Fund (UGF) revenue is now forecast to be $2.3 billion in both FY 2018 and FY 2019. Compared to the fall 2017 forecast, this spring forecast represents an increase in expected UGF of $256 million for FY 2018 and $212 million for FY 2019. For FY 2020-2026, projected UGF revenue has increased by between $124 million and $213 million. For FY 2027, projected UGF revenue is essentially unchanged from the fall forecast.
The revenue forecast is driven by an expectation of North Slope oil production averaging 521,800 barrels per day in FY 2018 and 526,600 barrels per day in FY 2019. Alaska North Slope oil prices are forecast to average $61 per barrel for FY 2018 and $63 per barrel for FY 2019.[xyz-ihs snippet=”Adsense-responsive”]Commissioner Fisher stated, “Expected revenue has increased approximately $125M -$250M per year across the forecast period. This is good news for all Alaskans. Unfortunately, even after this additional revenue, Alaska continues to face a budget deficit in excess of $2.3 billion. The Administration will continue to work with the Legislature to address the fiscal gap during this legislative session.”
The spring forecast provides an updated expectation for oil prices, oil production, and state revenue over the next ten years. The spring 2018 revenue forecast will be available today, March 16, 2018, at 12:00 pm on the Department’s website, at www.tax.alaska.gov.
