“If new talks take place and Trump insists on capitulation, he will get war,” warned one analyst. “Iran will pay an immeasurable price. As will the region. But the U.S. will also pay a very heavy price.”

U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday demanded “unconditional surrender” from the Iranian government after threatening to order the assassination of the country’s leader, an escalation of rhetoric that observers said could signal imminent American intervention in the increasingly deadly conflict that Israel, without provocation, started last week.

Trump wrote on his social media platform that “we know exactly where” Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, “is hiding.”

“He is an easy target, but is safe there,” the U.S. president continued. “We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now.”

Minutes later, Trump wrote in a separate post, in all caps, “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”

Trump’s use of “we” in his latest messaging on the war indicates that the president sees the U.S.—Israel’s top ally and arms supplier—as a party to the conflict, a departure from his insistence just days earlier that the U.S. was “not involved.”

“Trump’s Iran war may destroy his presidency as Bush’s Iraq invasion destroyed his. Iran will lose. But so will the U.S.”

Citing unnamed U.S. officials, Axiosreported Tuesday that Trump “is seriously considering joining the war and launching a U.S. strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, especially its underground uranium enrichment facility in Fordow.”

The same outlet reported over the weekend that Israeli officials had been pressuring the Trump administration to wade into the conflict directly, claiming that Israel “lacks the bunker buster bombs and large bomber aircraft needed to destroy Iran’s Fordow uranium enrichment site.”

New polling indicates that a U.S. military attack on Iran would be deeply unpopular with American voters, including those who supported Trump in 2024.

Trita Parsi, co-founder and executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, warned Tuesday that Trump now appears “determined to take the country to a war of choice.”

“If new talks take place and Trump insists on capitulation, he will get war,” Parsi wrote. “Iran will pay an immeasurable price. As will the region. But the U.S. will also pay a very heavy price. Scores of American soldiers may be killed. Oil prices will skyrocket, and gas prices in hot summer months in the U.S. will soar. Inflation will go up.”

“Trump’s Iran war may destroy his presidency as Bush’s Iraq invasion destroyed his,” Parsi added. “Iran will lose. But so will the U.S. Israel is perhaps the only country that will benefit from this war of choice.”

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  assassination, iran, leader, surrender, trump